← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 42% | 58% | 2.15 | value: +24% ⚠ |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 31% | 23% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 19% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1032.00 | 2128.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1558.31 | 1539.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.98 | -50.35 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| league points | 52.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.61 |
| state index | 0.31 | -0.64 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |