← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 73% | 78% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 15% | 5.50 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 10% | 7% | 10.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 667.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1392.21 | 1721.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.79 | 16.41 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| league points | 27.00 | 72.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 2.18 |
| state index | -0.89 | 1.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |