← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Wed, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 54% | 79% | 1.66 | value: +31% ⚠ |
| Draw | 26% | 16% | 3.60 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 20% | 5% | 4.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 6872.00 | 1667.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1327.04 | 1550.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.45 | 31.41 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| league points | 17.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| season ppg | 0.53 | 1.50 |
| state index | -1.87 | 0.63 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |