← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sun, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waalwijk win | 45% | 45% | 2.10 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 29% | 28% | 3.60 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waalwijk | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 3582.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1405.29 | 1404.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.02 | 14.51 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 26.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 0.94 |
| state index | -0.02 | -0.55 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |