← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sun, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 40% | 34% | 2.25 | fair |
| Vitesse win | 32% | 37% | 2.90 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2668.00 | 295.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1455.48 | 1610.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.90 | -28.48 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| league points | 37.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.94 |
| state index | -0.47 | 0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |