← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sun, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 79% | 86% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 8% | 6.00 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 6% | 6% | 15.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 295.00 | 1391.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1691.44 | 1426.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 49.10 | -17.39 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.35 |
| league points | 69.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 2.16 | 1.06 |
| state index | 1.53 | -0.86 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |