← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sun, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 46% | 38% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.40 | value: +7% |
| Heracles win | 27% | 31% | 3.60 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1018.00 | 2114.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1427.89 | 1625.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.02 | -24.41 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 26.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 1.68 |
| state index | -0.30 | 0.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |