← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sun, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 70% | 77% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 14% | 5.00 | fair |
| Vitesse win | 11% | 9% | 8.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 653.00 | 2661.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1711.99 | 1458.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.14 | -23.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| league points | 66.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 2.13 | 1.19 |
| state index | 1.35 | -0.51 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |