← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 58% | 56% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 3.80 | fair |
| FC Twente '65 win | 18% | 22% | 5.00 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 287.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1697.52 | 1620.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -50.00 | -5.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| league points | 68.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.19 | 2.00 |
| state index | 0.23 | 0.67 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |