← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda JC win | 44% | 65% | 2.10 | value: +37% ⚠ |
| ADO Den Haag win | 29% | 8% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 6861.00 | 652.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1360.05 | 1580.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.43 | -21.08 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| league points | 17.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 16.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.55 | 1.45 |
| state index | -1.74 | 0.08 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |