← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Fri, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 74% | 86% | 1.22 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 17% | 8% | 6.00 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 9% | 5% | 11.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 286.00 | 2477.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1686.30 | 1472.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.11 | -32.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| league points | 66.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 2.13 | 1.39 |
| state index | 1.27 | -0.91 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |