← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sun, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 67% | 70% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 20% | 4.75 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 12% | 10% | 8.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waalwijk | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 281.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1376.64 | 1692.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.75 | 38.36 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.55 |
| league points | 22.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 2.17 |
| state index | -0.35 | 1.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |