← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sun, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 54% | 48% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 32% | 3.60 | value: +16% |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 20% | 20% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 3568.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1505.81 | 1426.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.31 | 44.02 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 40.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| state index | 0.11 | -0.01 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |