← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sun, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 71% | 84% | 1.30 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 19% | 11% | 4.75 | fair |
| Heracles win | 10% | 5% | 11.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 281.00 | 1011.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1673.75 | 1420.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.32 | 22.94 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.15 |
| league points | 61.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.03 | 0.83 |
| state index | 0.87 | -0.45 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |