← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sun, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 53% | 78% | 1.72 | value: +34% ⚠ |
| Draw | 26% | 15% | 3.50 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 22% | 7% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2472.00 | 646.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1482.56 | 1702.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.31 | 1.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| league points | 43.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 2.10 |
| state index | -0.21 | 1.12 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |