← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda JC win | 60% | 60% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.60 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 15% | 15% | 6.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 645.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1525.39 | 1431.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.44 | 30.44 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| league points | 42.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 0.90 |
| state index | -0.11 | -0.02 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |