← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 72% | 81% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 10% | 5.00 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 10% | 9% | 9.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1010.00 | 6854.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1560.35 | 1329.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.69 | -26.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| league points | 48.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 0.53 |
| state index | 0.50 | -1.84 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |