← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Fri, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 51% | 61% | 1.85 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.75 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 23% | 14% | 4.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2652.00 | 1375.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1443.97 | 1440.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -56.23 | -7.69 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 34.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.10 |
| state index | -1.35 | -0.42 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |