← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sun, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 78% | 89% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 9% | 6.00 | fair |
| Heracles win | 7% | 2% | 15.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 274.00 | 1004.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1688.61 | 1390.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.03 | 22.72 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.15 |
| league points | 62.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| season ppg | 2.14 | 0.86 |
| state index | 1.22 | -0.47 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |