← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 54% | 80% | 1.70 | value: +36% ⚠ |
| Draw | 26% | 11% | 3.50 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 20% | 9% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2464.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1477.82 | 1717.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.43 | -23.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| league points | 42.00 | 67.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 12.96 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 2.31 |
| state index | -0.06 | 0.61 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |