← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 74% | 87% | 1.22 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 18% | 10% | 5.00 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 8% | 3% | 12.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 638.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1698.97 | 1379.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.65 | 21.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| league points | 60.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 14.96 |
| season ppg | 2.07 | 0.76 |
| state index | 0.85 | -0.61 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |