← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 49% | 62% | 1.85 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 27% | 18% | 3.40 | fair |
| Vitesse win | 24% | 20% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 2633.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1505.02 | 1462.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.93 | -34.82 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 37.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.21 |
| state index | -0.02 | -0.99 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |