← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 46% | 53% | 2.10 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.25 | fair |
| AFC Ajax win | 25% | 22% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 260.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1742.98 | 1662.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.00 | 5.31 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| league points | 67.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.39 | 2.11 |
| state index | 1.22 | 0.86 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |