← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 59% | 71% | 1.53 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 24% | 19% | 3.75 | fair |
| Heracles win | 17% | 10% | 5.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 990.00 | 625.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1384.61 | 1705.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.33 | 3.68 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.55 |
| league points | 24.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 2.11 |
| state index | -0.61 | 1.04 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |