← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sat, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 59% | 58% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 28% | 4.00 | value: +13% |
| SBV Excelsior win | 17% | 14% | 5.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1495.85 | 1408.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.86 | 0.74 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| league points | 37.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 0.75 |
| state index | -0.17 | -0.66 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |