← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sat, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 53% | 51% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 32% | 3.60 | value: +14% |
| NAC Breda win | 22% | 18% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 989.00 | 2450.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1606.00 | 1510.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.57 | -2.29 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| league points | 44.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.50 |
| state index | 0.41 | -0.08 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |