← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sat, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 44% | 37% | 2.20 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 30% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 35% | 3.50 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 6833.00 | 1355.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1353.23 | 1423.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.92 | -29.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 16.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 18.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 1.04 |
| state index | -1.50 | -1.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |