← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sun, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 71% | 68% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 23% | 5.00 | value: +14% |
| SBV Excelsior win | 10% | 9% | 9.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1365.47 | 1874.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.46 | -17.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.60 |
| league points | 20.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 2.44 |
| state index | -0.94 | 1.54 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |