← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sun, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 55% | 61% | 1.66 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 19% | 10% | 5.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 618.00 | 2079.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1710.20 | 1584.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.17 | -24.59 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| league points | 58.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.15 | 1.74 |
| state index | 1.23 | -0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |