← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sat, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 40% | 38% | 2.30 | fair |
| NEC win | 33% | 32% | 2.70 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1348.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1444.22 | 1475.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.86 | -29.61 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 29.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.26 |
| state index | -0.57 | -0.77 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |