← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sat, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 64% | 71% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.20 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 13% | 8% | 7.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 982.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1548.27 | 1370.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.37 | 20.66 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| league points | 41.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 0.70 |
| state index | 0.09 | -0.69 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |