← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sun, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 49% | 61% | 1.90 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 26% | 19% | 3.50 | fair |
| FC Utrecht win | 25% | 20% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 611.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1514.23 | 1697.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.19 | 15.55 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| league points | 36.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 2.12 |
| state index | 0.40 | 1.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |