← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sun, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 70% | 70% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | 5.00 | value: +7% |
| SC Heerenveen win | 10% | 8% | 10.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 246.00 | 976.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1738.80 | 1586.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.08 | -14.87 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.35 |
| league points | 56.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.15 | 1.46 |
| state index | 1.25 | 0.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |