← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sat, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 44% | 41% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.25 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 28% | 36% | 3.40 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3532.00 | 1341.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1389.98 | 1444.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.98 | -14.75 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| league points | 22.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 1.08 |
| state index | -0.47 | -0.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |