← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sat, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 61% | 70% | 1.50 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 3.75 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 14% | 8% | 7.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2618.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1481.55 | 1387.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.34 | -32.94 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| league points | 33.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 0.65 |
| state index | -0.42 | -1.61 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |