← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sat, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 80% | 82% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 15% | 7.00 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 6% | 4% | 17.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1873.58 | 1411.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -44.03 | 18.56 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.10 |
| league points | 63.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.42 | 0.73 |
| state index | 1.27 | -0.43 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |