← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Fri, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 43% | 37% | 2.20 | fair |
| NEC win | 29% | 28% | 3.60 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 36% | 3.20 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 244.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1489.28 | 1625.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.79 | 27.74 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.60 |
| league points | 34.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 2.08 |
| state index | -0.17 | 0.88 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |