← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sun, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 43% | 28% | 2.10 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 30% | 42% | 3.20 | value: +35% |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 2430.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1400.72 | 1490.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.88 | 22.96 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 17.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 0.68 | 1.52 |
| state index | -1.37 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |