← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 71% | 81% | 1.28 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 20% | 13% | 4.50 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 10% | 5% | 11.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 238.00 | 3525.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1632.51 | 1382.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.25 | 3.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.10 |
| league points | 53.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.12 | 0.84 |
| state index | 1.26 | -0.77 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |