← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 54% | 53% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
| Heracles win | 20% | 21% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1334.00 | 968.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1447.97 | 1363.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.19 | -27.39 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 27.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 0.76 |
| state index | -0.56 | -1.77 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |