← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Fri, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 48% | 52% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
| NEC win | 25% | 22% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1499.50 | 1504.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.25 | 5.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 33.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.36 |
| state index | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |