← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sun, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 83% | 83% | 1.10 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 14% | 8.00 | value: +10% |
| SBV Excelsior win | 5% | 4% | 23.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 232.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1661.59 | 1393.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.47 | -44.28 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.15 |
| league points | 54.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 2.25 | 0.67 |
| state index | 1.22 | -1.64 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |