← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sat, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 44% | 36% | 2.05 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 30% | 30% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 34% | 3.50 | value: +19% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2604.00 | 596.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1500.70 | 1543.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.34 | 40.91 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| league points | 32.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| state index | -0.01 | 0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |