← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sat, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 52% | 69% | 1.75 | value: +22% ⚠ |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.60 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 23% | 9% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1499.21 | 1358.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.92 | -12.82 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 31.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 0.67 |
| state index | -0.04 | -1.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |