← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Fri, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 51% | 44% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 33% | 3.50 | value: +15% |
| ADO Den Haag win | 23% | 24% | 4.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3517.00 | 6804.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1374.88 | 1363.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.21 | -14.23 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| league points | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 0.58 |
| state index | -1.08 | -1.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |