← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Fri, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 49% | 48% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 25% | 24% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2421.00 | 1326.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1479.25 | 1459.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.39 | 32.12 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 35.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 1.13 |
| state index | 0.31 | -0.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |