← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sun, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 46% | 48% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.40 | value: +6% |
| NAC Breda win | 27% | 21% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 2416.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1501.09 | 1487.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.32 | 44.31 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 30.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.52 |
| state index | 0.02 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |