← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sun, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 62% | 73% | 1.44 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 24% | 17% | 3.75 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 14% | 10% | 6.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1321.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1453.75 | 1745.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.54 | -33.46 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| league points | 26.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 2.43 |
| state index | 0.10 | 0.76 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |