← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sun, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 65% | 77% | 1.40 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 22% | 14% | 4.20 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 13% | 8% | 7.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 6799.00 | 225.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1368.15 | 1657.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.02 | 34.36 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| league points | 14.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.61 | 2.22 |
| state index | -1.12 | 1.06 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |