← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sat, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda JC win | 49% | 42% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 33% | 3.50 | value: +14% |
| NEC win | 25% | 25% | 3.80 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 589.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1535.83 | 1506.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.31 | -6.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| league points | 33.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.35 |
| state index | 0.41 | -0.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |